posted 8.38 a.m. et
pre-open comment Monday 8th October
Friday’s session opened well above the VAH (dashed) at 1454 (see Thursday’s comments) but was quickly auctioned back below that level. imo the most bullish development here is that same level (1454) attracting time and the current poc migrating up to that level. Time printed below 1446 (1/2R) would be weaker price location and Effective Selling marked below the current poc at 1435 would be a negative development in the longer timeframe.
Friday closed above the high of Mon-Wed Hi-Lo Range and that indicates Buying on the weekly timeframe. The Chartprofit Market Timing Chart turned back to positive for Nyse; stayed neutral for Nasdaq and stayed positive for UK. The %Stocks>50dyma numbers remain above 50 for all three charts which is supportive.
First Level Support = 1446.00 (min 1/2R off Sep high)
Second Level Support = 1435.00 (35dy poc)
Key chart levels this week: still monitoring the Maj 1/2R (off 2000 high):
QQQ = 70.13 (Fri Close 68.98). Nasdaq Comp = 3120.50 (Fri Close 3136.19). Nasdaq 100 = 2805.60 (Fri Close 2811.94).
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 4.22 which is down quite a way from the extreme high (5.51) on 09/18 which coincided with the recent price peak. The AAII and Investors Intelligence polls reported less Bulls last week and there were Equity Fund outflows of -$2.8 Billion. The VIX is still close enough to its recent five year low to be a concern but generally the Sentiment indications are not overly bullish, which would be a warning (contrarian).
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
? EURUSD: Has so far held the Major poc Support at 1.2777 since the high in September. Bulls would want to see that level hold. Momentum is still down.
? Dollar Index: Since the September low the chart rallied to exactly 80.15 (the major level) and has so far found Resistance there. Price above 80.15 or below 79.19 would be strong/weak price location.
+ TLT: has been printing below the 125.93 (5mn poc) Resistance since early September. Price relative to the 1/2R off the September low at 121.64 is worth monitoring at the start of this week – chart in weak price location below that level.
It is difficult to imply an ST bias for equities from these charts.
