posted 08.20 a.m. est
pre-open comment Monday 9th September
ST ES analysis has improved. LT analysis has not. On Wednesday last week the minor (26day) poc migrated to 1638 and on Friday the session low came in at that level with Responsive Buying being marked, see chart. The last three Value Areas have printed above that (now proven) upport and if 1638 holds at the start of this week I will take it as a sign of strenth in the ST. Aggressive Buying above that level would be a further postive.
Index ETFs relative to 1/2R off August high: SPY high on Friday just below 167.00 IWM high on Friday at 102.90. Note that QQQ is relatively strong and printed above its August high on Friday.
Breadth: CP Market Timing System stayed negative for Nyse, stayed neutral for Nasdaq and stayed negative for R2000.
Stocks>50dyma numbers need to improve: Nyse 45%, Nasdaq 49% R2000 41% Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
First Level Resistance = 1665 (min 1/2R off Aug high)
First Level Support = 1644.50 (5mn poc)
Second Level Support = 1638 (26day poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio finished the week at 2.98 which is a 33day low. The ratio reached as high as 5.43 at the market May high and as low as 2.15 on 07/10 (which was the lowest ratio since January 2012).
Supporting Charts –
Bonds TLT: Chart stayed in a weak price location last week below the Resistance at 107.22, the 4mn poc and prints close to the August low.
Oil USO: Now printing above both the 1/2R off 2011 high at 37.31 and 37.93 its maj poc in a stronger price location. Momentum is positive.
Gold GLD: Chart is currently printing (just) below 134.17, the 12mn poc. Momentum (although positive) is down.
Dollar Index: Currently in weak price location below the major poc at 82.73. Bulls would want to see price recover that level.
EURUSD: Currently printing in a weak price location below 1.3228, the 1/2R off Feb high. There is Support at the 1.3063 poc.
