Pre-open comment Thursday 10th February
Since the start of the week ES has been printing above the 8dayVAH which has slowed progress higher. 8dayVAH comes in at 1314.5 today with ES currently printing below that level pre-open. Until Significant Sellers are marked I will assume higher but normal backing and filling of the overlay profile suggests that ES may want to do that between 1314 and 1304 (there’s support at 1302.50). I would prefer that today with a recovery rather than through Friday as the latter would present us with a bearish weekly structure by the end of the week. Significant Selling marked below 1302.50 would be a first sign of weakness.
First Level S/R = 1318.50 (minor 6day poc)
Second Level Support = 1302.50 (minor 12day)
Support = 1293 (20day)
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was up to 3.56 from 2.73. Bear fund assets that I follow fell by 16%. This ratio is still historically high but down from 3.94 (on 01/19) which was the highest reading I have in my database.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
+ EURUSD: Low today is 1.3582, just above the 1/2R support at 1.3580. As long as chart holds above that level it is in a strong position but it could be under threat today.
+ UDX: Still weak below resistance at 78.53.
+ TLT: Reference level is now 91.80. Chart currently weak below that level.
imo these charts have a positive bias for equities.
