pre-open comment Thursday 10th May
There is little to add today to previous comments. ES printing below the 1366poc is weak price location. First minor sign of strength would be time spent above 1366 but I will not consider long positions unless Significant Buying is marked above that level.
First Level Resistance = 1366 (4month poc)
Sentiment: Investors Intelligence (newsletters) poll reported Bulls at 38.7% (down from 43) which is the lowest Bulls% since late October last year. However at that time the Bears% was at 41% and the the current Bears% is unchanged from last week at 20.4% which is a relatively low number. So unusually, we have low conviction from both the Bulls and the Bears.
My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 3.98 (from 3.61).
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
– EURUSD: broke below 1.3069, the four month poc Support on Monday and on Wednesday printed its lowest level since January.
? Dollar Index: On Wednesday and again today attempted to overcome the major Resistance at 80.15. Has failed thus far.
– TLT: printed a 3month high on Wednesday at 119.57. As long as chart holds above the major poc at 117.18 it is in a strong price location.
imo these charts have a negative bias for equities.
