Pre-open comment Thursday 11th June
See Wednesday’s highlighted comments. Following Tuesday’s test of the 4mn VAL (dashed line) ES rallied sharply on Wednesday indicating that the distribution which began in March is still valid (i.e. still developing). The controlling price of this distribution is the same as the 10mn poc, i.e. 2098.50 and currently ES prints above this level which puts it back in a strong price location. Significant Buying marked above this level would indicate higher. The more minor poc (2mn) is at 2107.50 and ES stalled at this level, see chart. If 2107.50 attracts time it is possible the 10mn poc could migrate to this level, that would be interesting. Breadth numbers improved, see below, and I also note that as the market rallied strong yesterday the Rydex Ratio declined, see below.
Key Chart SPY found Support on Tuesday close to 207.92, its 9mn TS, and has rallied back strongly.
potential Support or Resistance = 2107.50 (2mn poc)
Support = 2098.50 (10mn poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 43% (from 33%), Nasdaq 57% (from 50%), R2000 52% (from 44%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 9.61 which is a 4month low. Bull fund assets that I follow fell to a 7month low and the Money Market assets spiked to a 4month high. All this as the market rallied strongly. These are contrarian indicators. The highest ratio in the database was at 14.06 on 03/02
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: closed on Wednesday at its lowest level since September and below 117.14, the maj poc. This is very weak price location.
Dollar Index: currently prints above 94.67, the 12mn Support. Price below this level would be weak price location.
Gold GLD: in May a probe into the Resistance at 117.60, the 1/2R off the November low, was rejected and last week closed at its lowest level since March.
Oil USO: in May printed its highest level since December and since early April has been printing above 18.39, the 12mn poc, in a stronger price location.
EURUSD: currently printing just below 1.1340, the 12mn Time Resistance. Price above this level would be stronger price location.
