posted 9.25 a.m. et
pre-open comment Thursday 11th October
Wednesday’s session saw ES break below the 1435poc Support. The VAL at 1428 was tested and possibly rejected because pre-open ES has probed back up above 1435. If ES can print above Wednesday’s high at 1437.50 it will negate the negative implications of yesterday’s red-at-bottom low. And time printed back above 1435 would be encouraging. 1435 could be intraday Support or Resistance today. My concerns in the ST are 1) red-at-bottom lows are usually retested within a day or two and 2) The current Rydex ratio (see below). Based on the Significant Selling yesterday new long trades are eliminated for me at least until Significant Buying is marked above 1435.
On Wednesday, Smallcaps (IWM) and Tech (XLK) declined a lot less than large caps (DIA, SPY) which is good to see.
First Level Resistance = 1446.00 (min 1/2R off Sep high)
Support/Resistance = 1435.00 (35dy poc)
Key chart levels this week: still monitoring the Maj 1/2R (off 2000 high):
QQQ = 70.13 (Wed Close 66.92). Nasdaq Comp = 3120.50 (Wed Close 3051.78). Nasdaq 100 = 2805.60 (Wed Close 2728.55).
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher at 4.45 which is a 5day high printed as SPY hit a 10day low which suggests the retail traders are thinking this is a dip to buy; they are usually wrong but I have been thinking the same thing.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
? EURUSD: Has so far held the Major poc Support at 1.2777 since the high in September. Bulls would want to see that level hold. Momentum is still down.
? Dollar Index: Since the September low the chart rallied to exactly 80.15 (the major level) and found Resistance there. This level was Resistance again on Wedneday. Price above 80.15 or below 79.19 would be strong/weak price location.
+ TLT: has been printing below the 125.93 (5mn poc) Resistance since early September. Price relative to the 1/2R off the September low at 121.64 is worth monitoring – chart in weak price location below that level.
It is difficult to imply an ST bias for equities from these charts.
