posted 9.15 a.m. et
pre-open comment Thursday 12th April
Wednesday generated a very tight Value Area. Most time was spent printing 1366, enough in fact for the 4month poc to migrate up to this level. This increases the significance of 1366. Significant Buying marked above this level would be bullish and probably negate the negative implications of Tuesday’s price action but unless that happens I will assume Tuesday’s low will be tested. Once again this level could be intraday Support or Resistance today but if the chart prints time below 1366 post-open I will expect further weakness.
First Level Resistance = 1386 (1/2R off March high)
Potential Support/Resistance = 1366 (4month poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 4.74 (from 4.85). No panic yet from the Rydex traders. Last week the ratio reached 5.64, the highest ratio in my database. However the ISEE (equity-only) index printed its lowest number since late January indicating that relatively there was a lot of Put buying yesterday.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
? EURUSD: Chart fell last week to the four month poc Support at 1.3069. Has so far held that Support.
? Dollar Index: 80.15 is the most important level on this chart and last week UDX rallied to this Resistance and has so far not broken above it.
? TLT: yesterday the chart tested above 116.22, the major poc. Currently prints just below that level.
imo these charts do not have an obvious bias for equities. This could change soon.
