posted 09.10 a.m. est
Pre-open comment Thursday 12th December
Pre-open yesterday I wrote that “there is a very min poc at 1803.50. May be useful for ST traders to monitor intraday.” The high of Wednesday’s session came in at 1803 which came immediately after the open. Aggressive Selling (red-at-bottom) was marked which means that new long trades are now eliminated for me at least until Significant Buying is marked again.
Here’s the negatives. Pre-open ES is printing below the 1792.00 poc in a weaker price location (there is Support at 1758.50). The Breadth numbers have deteriorated, see below. The ST Support trendlines I drew on the four stock index ETF charts have been broken and Momentum for all four charts is now down. And there has been some excessively high readings in the Sentiment indicators recently. I am being cautious here. At current levels I would want to see Significant Buying marked above ES 1792 before considering new long trades.
First Level Resistance = 1792.00 poc
First Level Support = 1758.50 poc
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 47% (from 59%), Nasdaq 51% (from 57%), R2000 48% (from 56%). Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly lower at 5.29. Last Thursday’s ratio at 5.67 is the highest in my database. This indicator is registering extreme optimism which has historically been a warning for the market. Investor’s Intelligence Bulls% came in at 58.8%, the highest since Oct 2010.
Supporting Charts – UNCHANGED
Bonds TLT: Last week probed the August low. Remains in a weak price location.
Gold GLD: Still in a very weak price location.
Oil USO: Back in a stronger price location back above 34.13, (3yr poc). Momentum is now positive and up.
Dollar Index: Pre-open, is printing below the 80.15 Support. Dollar Bulls would want to see this level recovered and Momentum turn back up.
EURUSD: Printed a 29day high on Tueday. Momentum is up and positive.
