Pre-open comment Thursday 12th January
Very little to add to yesterday’s comments, highlighted on graphic. Significant Sellers have not been marked for thirteen days. Pre-open ES has printed its highest level since August.
First Level Support = ES 1271.50 (20dy poc) SPY = 127.91
Second Level Support = ES 1256 (poc) SPY = 126.00
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was down slightly at 2.64 (from 2.69). Last Friday’s ratio at 3.0 was a five month high. Investors Intelligence (newsletters) poll reported 51.1% Bulls which is the highest since the week of the market top in 2011 (w/e 6th May). However, Bears at 29.8% is not a low number (at the May high lat year they were 16.5%). It will be interesting see what the AAII (public) poll reports later today.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
– EURUSD: Chart printed a new 15month low on Wednesday. Momentum is up.
– Dollar Index: Chart printed a new 15month low on Wednesday. Momentum is down.
? TLT: chart still holding the 10month poc Support at 117.88. Momentum is down.
imo these charts have a negative bias for equities but momentum indicator suggests this could change.
