pre-open comment Thursday 12th July
Tuesday’s red-at-bottom low was tested and pre-open ES has printed in low 1320s. Pre-open, all four major US Index ETFs are printing below their important 1/2R levels (off 2012 high) including yesterday’s Key chart IWM. I have noted a marked improvement in the LT analysis recently but this week the ST analysis has indicated weakness with Significant Selling being marked, weak price location as just described and negative equity bias from the Dollar and Bonds. The 1/2R off June lows may come into play now.
Recently the Sentiment measures were hitting two month extremes of optimism and hopefully this decline will dissipate that enthusiasm quickly.
First Level Resistance = 1334.50 (1/2R off March high) SPY = 134.67
First Level Support = 1315 (1/2R off June low) SPY = 132.46
My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 4.03 from Tuesday’s 4.40 which was a 37day high.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
– EURUSD: New low again on Wednesday.
– Dollar Index: has today broken above the June high to its highest level for two years.
– TLT: chart now prints in a strong price location above the Minor 1/2R off June high at 127.23 26dy high printed on Wednesday.
imo charts imply a negative bias for equities.
