pre-open comment Thursday 13th December
Strictly applying my rules I had to mark Aggressive Selling (red-at-bottom) on Wednesday. This was not Effective Selling as the Value Area was overlapping/higher and wider than previous day but it eliminates new long trades for me at least until Significant Buying is marked again. In the dayframe there is minor Support at the 1413 (30dy poc).
First Level Support = 1413 (30dy poc).
Second Level Support = ES 1406 (maj poc)
Breadth. %Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 64% and Nasdaq 52%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Price location. Index ETFs 1/2R levels: SPY 141.40; IWM 81.55; DIA 130.45; QQQ 65.95. Pre-open all these charts are printing above their 1/2R levels except for Key chart QQQ which is printing just below its 1/2R.
Key chart levels that would indicate risk-off are QQQ back below 65.95 and Dollar Index back above 80.15.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 3.15 (from 2.87). Tuesday’s reading at 2.65 was close to the recent low for the ratio (11/16) at 2.57 which was the lowest since 7th June. Worth mentioning that in the Investors Intelligence poll Bears fell to 23.4% which is the lowest Bears% since w/e 18th May.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
+ EURUSD: Momentum turned down last week but Chart prints above the 4mn poc at 1.2964 with Resistance once again in play at 1.3117 (24mn poc)
+ Dollar Index: Chart currently printing below the 80.15 major level
+ TLT: is printing below the 125.50 (the 9mn poc).
imo these charts have a positive bias for equities.
