posted 9.29 a.m. ET
Pre-open comment Thursday 13th October
Wednesday was the sixth consecutive day of higher highs and higher lows. ES probed very briefly above 1st Level Resistance at 1214.50 but pre-open today has printed as low as 1190, just above 1st Level Support at 1189. If ES can print time above the natural Resistance at the 1214.50 1/2R it will be back in a strong price location.
Breadth: %Stocks>50dyma. Both Nyse and Nasdaq numbers just managed to exceed the 50 level at close on Wednesday. If these number hold above 50 it is a bullish indication.
1st Level Support = 1189 (min poc) (SPY 118.95)
2nd Level Support = 1158 40dypoc (SPY 114.85 4mnthpoc)
1st Level Resistance = 1214.50 1/2R off May high (SPY 122.30)
LT Sentiment: Investors Intelligence (newsletters) poll has Bears at 46.3 (up from 45.2) and that’s the highest level of Bears since March 2009. Bulls were unchanged at 34.4% which brings the nett to -11.9, the lowest since March 2009.
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was down at 1.43 (from 1.54).
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
? EURUSD: Broke Major Support in early September but has recovered back above 1.3416 (1/2R Support off June 2010 low). Momentum (PriceOsc) has been higher for thirteen consecutive days.
? Dollar Index: Last week printed its highest level since January but momentum (PriceOsc) has been lower for twelve consecutive days.
? TLT: Last week printed a new high testing again the old high from December 2008. Currently printing back below that level and daily momentum has turned down.
imo these charts have a negative bias for equities in the LT but positive in the ST.
