posted 09.08 a.m. est
pre-open comment Thursday 14th February
Strictly applying my rules I had to mark Responsive Selling on Wednesday but this was Ineffective because yesterday’s Value Area was overlapping/higher. Even so, new long trades are now eliminated for me at least until Significant Buying is marked again. ES printing 1522 would negate any negative implications of that selling imbalance. “Effective” Selling has not been marked since mid December.
Dayframe: Yesterday I wrote that the 7day poc at 1513 was minor Support. So it proved on Wednesday but this level is no longer useful intraday. The 8day poc is now 1517.50 and this level is now minor dayframe Resistance.
First Level Support = 1495 (40dy poc)
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 82% and Nasdaq 73%. Numbers >50 are supportive. Numbers>80 usually considered overbought.
My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was sharply higher at 5.22 which is the highest reading since 18th September. The highest reading in my database at 5.64 was in early April 2012. Ratio has rarely been above 5 in my database. This is a contrarian indicator and it is telling us the Rydex traders are very bullish. I will add though that although Bull Fund Assets that I follow are at a 69day high they are well below the level they reached in September. Ratio is so high because the Bear Fund Assets are close to the lowest in my database.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
+ Bonds TLT: has spent the majority of the last eleven trading days printing time below 117.15, the major poc, which is weak price location.
? Oil USO: has worked off some of its technical “overboughtness” and is currently holding above the 1/2R and poc Resistance around 34.17. Momentum indicator turning back up would be a positive for this chart.
– Gold GLD; Silver SLV: Gold GLD broken below the 161.0 major poc on Monday. This is weak price location. Silver SLV is a Key Chart. It rallied to 31.25, its major poc Resistance, twice in January and looks to have failed at that level. This chart, like GLD, is in a weak price location.
– Dollar Index: printed a 24dy high today above 80.15, the major level.
– EURUSD: today prints below 1.3416 (1/2R off 2010 low).
All these charts print close to their major levels so things can change quickly in terms of price location strength/weakness. Bonds ETF TLT is probably the key chart relative to its maj poc at 117.15.
