S&P 500 emini pre-open Thursday 15th January

posted 09.27 a.m. est

Following the rejection of probes early in the week above 2035.00 (poc), ES generated a lower (albeit narrower) Value Area on Wednesday. As mentioned yesterday the VAL (Value Area low) of a distribution that (imo) began in mid October is currently at 1994.50 (dashed) and this was tested on Wednesday but ES has rallied and pre-open today has tested the minor (14dy) poc at 2017.00. Watch price relative to this level post-open. If ES prints back down around 2009 there is the possibility that the 4mn poc could migrate to that level. Significant Buyers have not been marked for eleven days.

First Level Resistance = 2035.00 (4mn poc)
Major Support = 1962.00 (6mn poc) and SPY 197.20 (8mn poc)

Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 41% (from 44%), Nasdaq 41% (from 44%), R2000 44% (from 47%). Numbers >50 are supportive.

Sentiment: SPY is lower last two days but my version of the Rydex Assets Ratio has beens higher both days – now at 11.56. This was largely due to Bear Fund Assets that I follow falling to a new extreme low. The Rydex retail traders look to be “buying the dip”. This is is not a bullish indication.

Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT:exceeded the 2012 high last week and printed a new high on Wednesday.
Dollar Index:last week printed its highest level since December 2005.
Gold GLD: pre-open today chart is printing above 119.87, maj poc, for the first time since early September. Time spent above this level would be a big positive.
Oil USO: on 12/12 broke below the extreme low of Feb 2009 and printed a new low on Tuesday.
EURUSD: probed the 4mn Time Resistance at 1.2475 last month and is lower from there, printing below 1.2300, the maj poc, and has today printed its lowest level since 2003.