posted 9.29 a.m. edt
Pre-open comment Thursday 15th September
Significant Buyers were marked twice on Wednesday, Responding just below Tuesday’s Value Area early in the session and Aggressively later in the session auctioning ES up to probe the VAH at 1188 (dotted). Short Trades are now eliminated for me at least until Significant Selling is marked again. The 40dy poc migrated higher to 1160. ST Sentiment (see Rydex below) is suggesting there are too many Bears.
The VAH of the distribution that began late July comes in at 1188 (dotted). This is a likley place for the market to stall but stats suggest that yesterday’s green-at-top high at 1196 will be tested.
My best guess here is that in the ST some of the Bearish Sentiment needs to be knocked out and therefore a rally is quite logical (contrarian). But the the fact that ES is probing the VAH might mean a stall here rather than much progress higher.
1st Level Support ES = 1160 (40dy poc)
1st Level Support SPY = 114.88 (40dy poc)
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 1.21. Bear Fund assets that I follow increased by 11% to a 12month high – contrarian bullish ST.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
– EURUSD: Has broken below Major Support at 1.4212 (maj poc) and 1.3965 (maj 1/2R).
– Dollar Index: Currently printing above the 74.96 poc and reached a six month high on Monday.
– TLT: Last week printed its highest level since Jan 2009.
imo these charts have lined up negatively for equities.
