posted 9.06 a.m. et
pre-open comment Thursday 16th August
Buyers Responded (green-at-bottom) just above yesterday’s First Level S/R at 1398.50 which was the newly migrated 25dy poc. Significant Sellers have not been marked at all across this consolidation above 1390 so I will assume for now this is Buyers Resting. However, the LT VAH at 1404 (dotted) has capped the top of this range and no progress has been made above that level.
Some technical indicators are registering overbought (e.g. 14dy RSI at 65.50 is the highest reading since the April price top) and the Rydex ratio is approaching a 3month high but the first indication of further weakness would only occur if Significant Selling is marked below 1398.50.
First Level S/R = 1398.50 (25dy poc)
Second Level Support = 1348 (6mn poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 4.50 (from 4.10). The ratio reached 4.51 on July 31st which was the highest level since mid-May and is the reference level now. Ratio above that level would likley indicate over-optimism.
VIX low Monday was 13.67. Below 13.66 would be a multi year low.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
? EURUSD: Key chart. A new two year low was printed late July. From that low point we have seen a rally and an exact 50% retracement of that rally which was Friday’s low at 1.2242. Low so far today is 1.2256 and Bulls would want to see that 1/2R level hold if tested again.
? Dollar Index: Pre-open there has been a probe up into 5mn poc at 82.83. The chart currently prints just below that price. If chart does print time back above that level it would be in a stronger price location.
+ TLT: As mentioned in Friday’s webcast, the 5mn poc migrated to 125.93 last week. The chart currently prints below that price which is weak price location.
imo these charts most likely have a positive bias for equities but that could change quickly.
