posted 08.38 a.m. est
Pre-open comment Thursday 16th January
Wednesday’s session generated a gap higher Open and a Value Area printed entirely above the 1835.50 poc. As long as ES can now hold this level (and despite extreme Sentiment readings, see below) it would suggest development up to 1865. Only Significant Selling marked below 1803.50 (4mn poc) would be a concern in the LT.
First Level S/R = 1835.50 (30dy poc)
Second Level Support = 1803.50 (4mn poc)
Stock Index ETFs: Momentum is positive but down for all four major ETFs.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 65% (from 62%), Nasdaq 74% (from 70%), R2000 68% (from 65%). Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio spiked much higher on Wednesday to 7.4 which is by far the highest in my database. I have checked data and all seems good. Seems it was largely due to a big outflow from Bear funds. This pushes the optimism to new extremes and has be taken as a warning for the market.
Supporting Charts UNCHANGED
Bonds TLT: is now printing above 102.85, the 10mn poc, in a stronger price location. Momentum is positive and up.
Gold GLD: Tested the June low late December and has rallied from there but remains in a weak price location.
Oil USO: Last week printed its lowest price since May. In a weak price location below 34.13 (3yr poc). Momentum is negative and down.
Dollar Index: For three months has been oscillating around 80.15, the maj poc. Looking for a clear higher low above, or lower high below this level.
EURUSD: Recently broke out to a two year high but this was rejected and chart printed a 23day low last Thursday. Still in a LT strong price location above 1.3524, the 9mn poc.
