posted 6.40 a.m. est
Pre-open comment Thursday 16th June
Wednesday’s First Level Support at 1268 held for the first two hours post open but once broken ES quickly auctioned lower. Aggressive Selling was marked (red-at-bottom). Currently the LT negatives in the analysis are over-riding any ST indications of a bounce from the Sentiment measures. 1268 now becomes First Level Resistance.
First Level Resistance = 1268 (minor poc)
Second Level Resistance = 1282.50 (16dy poc) (129.67 SPY)
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 2.31. Tuesday’s ratio at 2.25 was a 58day low. Other Rydex ratios I follow (including those that incorporate Money Market Assets) have now reached their lowest readings since October 2010. Bull Fund Assets that I monitor are at new lows since October but Bear Fund Assets haven’t correspondingly increased – they are only at highest level since late March. The ISEE (equity-only) index came in at 115 which is the lowest single reading since November last year.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
– EURUSD: On the daily chart there is now a confirmed minor lower high at the 1/2R (1.4455) off the May high. Chart printed a 14day low today and Momentum (PriceOsc) is down.
– Dollar Index: 14day high today and back above the minor 1/2R (74.53) off May high. Momentum (PriceOsc) is up. If 76.36 is exceeded we will have a confirmed higher low (since the May low) and that will look like trend up – would also break above the descending trendline off the major high a year ago.
? TLT: Appears to be oscillating around the 3yr poc at 96.28. Momentum (PriceOsc) ticked up.
imo these charts are mixed but have a negative ST bias for equities.
