Pre-open comment Thursday 17th March
I marked Aggressive Selling on Wednesday (red-at-bottom). Unlike Tuesday’s Ineffective activity from the Buyers this was Effective Selling (lower/overlapping and wider Value Area). All price action was below the 1281.50 poc and unless ES can build some value back above that level I remain negative even in the ST.
The ST Sentiment numbers below could be used to explain a ST rally and ES has managed to climb as high as 1273.50 pre-open but until I mark Effective Buying above 1281.50 I’m expecting yesterday’s red-at-bottom low to be tested at some point.
First Level S/R = 1281.50 Resistance = 1290.5 1/2R (now June contract)
Both Nyse and Nasdaq %Stocks>50dayma numbers are well below the 50 level which is an indication of weakness.
ST sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was down from 2.74 to 2.57 which is the lowest ratio for three months. And the ISEE (equity-only) index came in at 122 which is the lowest reading since 29th November.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
+ EURUSD: Still in strong price location. Chart printed its highest level today since early November.
+ UDX: Still in weak price location. Chart printed its lowest level today since early November.
– TLT: Printed a three month high yesterday.
imo these charts are mixed and it is difficult to infer a bias for equities.
