posted 09.23 a.m.
pre-open comment Wednesday 17th April
On Wednesday, Monday’s red-at-bottom low was tested as the stats strongly suggested it would be, see yesterday’s comments. Bulls would hope that ES can hold above the 5month poc at 1548.50 and the breadth numbers improve. I also want to see Significant Buyers (green) marked before considering new longs. You will also notice that ES tested (and so far rejected) the VAL at 1538, given yesterday, but price below 1548.50 is still weak location so I remain very cautious. Pre-open chart is very close to that level.
Watch also IWM relative to 90.44 poc and SPY to 155.80 (pre-open both charts print below these levels).
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 41% Nasdaq 37%. Not supportive.
Resistance (minor) = ES 1582.50 (10dy poc)
Potential Support or Resistance intraday today = ES 1548.50 (5month poc)
Support = ES 1517.50 (prev poc)
VAL of the higher range of prices since early March is at ES 1538 (dashed).
My Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher on Tuesday at 4.44. The Recent high for the ratio was on 13th Feb at 5.22. 60day low was 3.49.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
? Bonds TLT: KEY CHART. Earlier this month TLT printed a new high for the year but failed at the obvious Resistance at 123.42, the 1/2R off last July’s high. Chart reached that level again yesterday but has not exceeded it.
– Oil USO: On Wednesday printed its lowest level since June last year.
– Gold GLD: I’ve been saying this is a weak chart since early February when it fell below its major poc. Fell steeply on Friday and again this week to its lowest level for two years.
– Silver SLV: Likewise this chart. Has been weak since it double-failed at its maj poc in January. On Monday chart printed its lowest level since October 2010.
? Dollar Index: KEY CHART. ST weak location printing below the 2month poc at 82.75 but today, only just. LT strong location above the 81.35 1/2R level. Momentum is negative but has turned up.
? EURUSD: also this chart printing almost at the 24mn poc at 1.3070 so difficult to gauge.
Watching particularly TLT and Dollar Index. Price location is not clear enough here to imply a bias for equities.
