Pre-open comment Thursday 18th August
A probe above the 8dyVAH at 1199 was rejected early in Wednesday’s session. An overlapping VA was generated and the 20dy poc migrated lower from 1196 to 1183. No Selling imbalance was marked.
If Significant Selling is marked below 1178 we would have the LT and ST analysis lining up negatively. Time spent above 1183 would imply ST strength, targeting the 1222.25 1/2R Resistance.
Resistance = 1222.25 (1/2R off May high) (SPY = 123.72)
First Level S/R = 1183 (20dy poc)
Major Support = 1094 (this is the MAJ LT poc)
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was down slightly at 1.73 (from 1.80). Last Friday’s ratio at 1.40 was a 10month low.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
+ EURUSD: prints above the band of maj LT support between 1.3920 to 1.3965 and above the 1/2R off May high at 1.44.
+ Dollar Index: Currently printing below the 74.96 poc.
– TLT: Currently printing above the major 1/2R off the 2008 high at 105.22.
imo it is difficult to imply a bias for equities in the ST.
