Pre-open Thursday 18th March
Note: now following ES June contract.
Wednesday’s session gapped higher and consolidated with a narrower Value Area generating slightly less volume but still greater than 10dyma. The market extended its “overboughtness” which it will do in an acceleration move (often into a top) – SP500 index RSI(14) reached 75 yesterday.
Dayframe: 161.50 ES is this week’s (3day) poc and for today’s session that may be a guide. If ES can overcome and hold above that level early in the session it would indicate higher otherwise we’ll likely see the gap filled with support at First Level S/R 1150.
ST sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets ratio was up from 2.25 to 2.47. VIX closed at its lowest level since May 2008.
Supporting charts – levels discussed in webcast:
Dollar Index closed below 80.15 – maj1/2
USDJPY prints above 89.76 – maj1/2
GLD prints above 109.42 – poc
EURUSD prints below 1.373 – maj1/2
Apart from EURUSD I’d say these charts are cautiously bullish for equities – they print very close to the important levels shown so this assessment could change quickly.
