posted 9.29 a.m. et
Pre-open comment Thursday 19th January
Exact low of Wednesday’s session was 1286.50, the minor poc support mentioned pre-open yesterday and Friday. Buyers Responded immediately (green-at-bottom) and Aggressive Buying was marked later in the session (green-at-top).
Sentiment measures will become a real concern if more Bulls emerge especially with SPY technically overbought (the RSI(14) on the daily chart has reached the level that brought in the May and July tops last year). However, with Buyers Active and Effective (higher, wider VA yesterday) and chart finding Support at the first, obvious levels we have to assume higher.
In the Dayframe time below 1286.50 would be a first sign of weakness and in the Longframe Effective Selling below 1271.50 would indicate further weakness.
Potential level of Resistance around 1315 (previous poc).
First Level Support = ES 1271.50 (20dy poc) SPY = 127.91
Second Level Support = ES 1256 (poc) SPY = 126.00
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly lower at 2.89 (from 2.98). The ratio on Friday 6th reached 3.0 which was a five month high.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
? EURUSD: Chart printed a new 15month low last week. Currently prints above the 1.2811 poc with momentum up.
? Dollar Index: Chart prints back at the important 80.15 Support with momentum now down.
– TLT: chart still holding above the 10month poc Support at 117.88 with momentum up.
imo these charts have an unclear bias for equities.
