posted 9.26 a.m. et
pre-open comment Thursday 19th July
Tuesday’s green-at-top high quickly exceeded as they usually are (80% tested with a day or two). All the Key Charts we have been monitoring are now printing above their 1/2R Levels off the 2012 highs. There may be some consolidation but as long as price holds above those levels this is much improved price location and Supportive for the general market. Pre-open ES is printing above the previous poc at 1366 and this is now First Level Support but may be an attractive level for price.
Worth noting that the 6month VAH comes in just above 1380. LT VAHs will often stall a rally.
First Level Support = 1366 (poc) SPY = 137.30
Second Level Support = 1346 (5mn poc) SPY = N/A
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 4.16 (from 3.86). Last week’s highest ratio at 4.40 was a 37day high. Bear Fund Assets that I follow reached a three month low yesterday. VIX printed a three month low at 15.69. Investors Intelligence reported Bulls slightly lower this week at 43.6% (from 44.7) and Bears once again unchanged at 24.5.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
? EURUSD: printed a two year low last Friday. Printed a seven day high today. Momentum has turned up. Unclear bias for equities in the ST.
? Dollar Index: printed a two year high last week. Momentum has turned down. Printing a ten day low today.
? TLT: On Monday chart printed above the June high to a new high but off that level. Momentum remains up.
Currently I cannot confidently imply a bias for equities from these charts.
