posted at 06.00 a.m. est
Pre-open comment Thursday 20th February
On Wednesday I marked Aggressive Selling for the first time in eleven days. These red-at-bottom lows are tested within one or two days, 80% of the time. The Value Area was overlapping so this cannot be called Effective Selling but even so, new long trades are now eliminated for me at least until Significat Selling is marked again. For now I assume this normal corrective action and the first sign of weakness would be time below 1792.00. Time above 1835.50 would indicate higher
ES intraday S/R = 1835.50 (6mn poc)
ES First Level Support = 1792.00
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 55% (from 61%), Nasdaq 52% (from 57%), R2000 46% (from 53%). Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 6.44. The recent high for the ratio at 7.50 in mid January was the highest in my database.
Supporting Charts
Bonds TLT: printed a 6mn high recently but then reversed. Strong price location but Momentum is down and now negative.
Gold GLD: Printed a 70day high last week. Momentum is positive and up but chart is still in a LT weak price location.
Oil USO: Now printing above 36.11, the 1/2R off September’s high, in an even stronger price location.
Dollar Index: currently printing just above the important 80.15 level. Dollar Bulls would want to see the chart hold 79.76, the maj poc.
EURUSD: Held the 9mn poc (1.3524) recently and Mometum is up and positive.
