posted 06.57 a.m. est
Pre-open comment Thursday 20th March
See previous highlighted comments. ES stalled at the VAH as suspected and later in the session Aggressive Selling was marked as ES probed 1852, the minor 1/2R of the recent high. This Selling was Ineffective because the Value Area was higher and wider. Sellers have been Active recently but price has not broken down so I am alert to the possibility that this is Buyers Resting. However, new longs are still eliminted for me and Significant Selling marked below 1835.50 would be LT negative.
ST S/R today = 1852 (minor 1/2R ES Jun)
LT Support = 1835.50 (6mn poc)
Breadth: Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 66% (from 72%), Nasdaq 63% (from 66)%, R2000 65% (from 69%). Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher at 7.35. The ratio reached 8.39 last week which is the highest ratio in my database. The Rydex traders are extremely bullish and historically this has been a warning for the market.
Supporting Charts (+ or – shown as implied bias for equities)
? KEY Chart Financial Sector XLF: Closed slightly above its maj 1/2R level (22.04).
? KEY Chart EURJPY: chart is printing just slightly above 140.96, the 1/2R off Dec high.
– KEY Chart Bonds TLT: printing above 106.34 (10mn poc) in a strong price location.
Dollar Index: Had a strong day on Wednesday and is now printing back above 79.76, the maj poc.
Gold GLD: lower this week but currently still printing above 127.20, the 18mn poc. Momentum remains down and has been negatively diverging with price.
Oil USO: Printing below 36.11, the 1/2R off Sep high in a weak price location. Momentum is negative and down.
EURUSD: Printed a two year high last week but lower this week with Momentum turning down.
