S&P 500 emini pre-open Thursday 20th November

posted 09.21 a.m. est

No Significant Buying marked for nine days but no Significant Selling has been marked since the mid-October low. First minor sign of weakness would be price printing below 2035.00 (minor poc). Pre-open today ES has tested that Support.

Price itself is the most important indicator but Momentum (PriceOsc), although positive, remains down for all four major stock index ETFs and the Rydex ratio is at new extreme levels (see below).

ES First Level S/R = 2035.00 (min poc)
ES Second Level Support = 1962.00 (6mn poc)

Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 68% (from 69%), Nasdaq 58% (from 63%), R2000 64% (from 69%). Numbers >50 are supportive.

Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio spiked to 11.43, the highest level in the database. There has been a recent surge in inflows into Bull Funds and their collective assets have reached a new high. Historically this kind of urgent lop-sided activity by retail traders has been a warning for the market.

Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: spiked violently higher in October to a two year high followed by a sharp reaction from there. But as long as chart holds above 117.14 (maj poc) it is in a strong price location in the LT. Pre-open today chart has reached a fifteen day high.
Dollar Index: printed a new four year high on Friday.
Gold GLD: recently reached its lowest level since April 2010 but is rallying a little off that low. In the LT it is still in a weak price location below the 119.87 maj poc.
Oil USO: On Wednesday chart printed its lowest level since 2009.
EURUSD: recently printed a two year low. There is Support at 1.2300