posted 9.14 a.m. et
pre-open comment Thursday 20th September
Wednesday’s session generated another narrow Value Area within the narrow high-to-low range for this week so far. Unless the Buyers (absent for four days) respond early in today’s session, ES may need to go lower to find them. I am concerned in the ST about the Sentiment indicators which are pushing up towards extremes and the current overboughtness of the market so I repeat Monday’s comment that until Significant Buying is marked again I will not enter any new long trades.
First Level Support = 1435.00 (18dy poc)
Other Key chart levels this week: Maj 1/2R off 2007 high:
QQQ = 70.13. pre-open chart prints just below this level.
Nasdaq Comp = 3120.50. Closed above this level on Wed.
Nasdaq 100 = 2805.60. Closed above this level on Wed.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was down a little at 5.19 but yesterday’s ratio was 5.51 and I only have one ratio higher than this in my database (5.64 on 3rd April). This level of optimism from the Rydex traders usually indicates limited upside in the ST. Investors Intelligence reported Bulls higher at 54.2% (from 51.1) which is the highest Bulls% since w/e 02/17. The Bears were slightly lower at 24.5% (from 25.5%). The nett at 29.7 is the highest since the early April price high.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). UNCHANGED
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
? EURUSD: The major poc remains at 1.2777 but the 12mnth poc has migrated to 1.3117. As the chart currently prints back below this level, 1.3117 is now Resistance of some importance. Chart printing time above 1.3117 would be strong price location.
+ Dollar Index: Last week printed its lowest level since early May and is printing below the major level at 80.15.
? TLT: TLT is oversold and printing above Major poc Support at 117.15. Until that level is broken I cannot assume further ST weakness.
It is difficult to imply an ST bias for equities from these charts.
