posted 08.35 a.m. est
pre-open comment Thursday 21st February
ES sold off sharply late in the session. Aggressive Selling (red-at-bottom) was marked but the Value Area was overlapping the previous VA. I classify marked Selling as “Effective” if the Value Area is lower and wider and Wednesday’s was not. Even so, new long trades are now eliminated for me at least until Significant Buying is marked again. You can see on the chart that both Significant Buyers and Sellers have been active recently. The 45day poc moved to 1517.50 which is now Resistance. The previous poc at 1495 “may” provide Support (it’s the only level I have here) or quite possibly attract time. If I mark “Effective” Selling it would be the first seen since mid-December and the first indication of weakness on the longer timeframe.
First Level Resistance = 1517.50 (45dy poc)
First Level Support = 1495 (prev poc)
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 74% and Nasdaq 68%. Numbers >50 are supportive. Numbers>80 usually considered overbought.
My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 4.87 (from 4.74). The ratio reached 5.22 on 02/13 which was the highest reading since September. The highest reading in my database at 5.64 was in early April 2012. VIX closed at 12.31 on Tuesday which was the lowest since 2007 14.68 which is the highest close this year.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
+ Bonds TLT: has spent the majority of the last three weeks printing time below 117.15, the major poc, which is weak price location.
– Oil USO: pre-open today has broken below the 1/2R and poc Resistance around 34.17. This chart is now in a weak price location along with GLD and SLV, see below.
– Gold GLD: has shown weakness since it broke below 161.0, the major poc, eight days ago. Has now printed its lowest level since July last year.
– Silver SLV: Printed its lowest level since August last year.
– Dollar Index: has today printed its highest level since early September.
– EURUSD: Printed a six week low today. Next Support is at 1.3117, the 24mn poc.
imo these charts have a negative bias for equities. Watching Bonds ETF TLT relative to its maj poc at 117.15.
