posted 06.15 a.m. est
pre-open comment Thursday 21st March
Note: this was posted at 6.15 a.m. est.
Wednesday’s session low held yesterday’s First Level Support at 1547. That poc has moved slightly higher to 1549 and that level is potential intraday Support or Resistance today. ES probed the minor VAH at 1554 but this was rejected; as I wrote yesterday “Acceptance of price above 1554 would most likely be a sign of ST strength”.
First Level S/R = ES 1549 (23dy poc)
Second Level Support = ES 1517.50 (3mn poc)
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 72%, Nasdaq 67%.
Numbers >50 are supportive. Numbers >80 usually considered overbought. We have divergence here. New highs in price but these numbers are lower than they were at the February high.
My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher again at 4.58 (from 4.21). The ratio reached 5.22 in February and that is the highest level since September. The highest reading in my database at 5.64 was in early April 2012.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
+ Bonds TLT: Having probed above the 117.15 major poc on Tuesday, TLT closed on Wednesday at 116.12, below that level. Price below 117.15 is weak location.
? Oil USO: three weeks ago broke below the 1/2R and poc Resistance around 34.17. This chart is in a weak price location. Momentum is up.
? Gold GLD: showed weakness after it broke below 161.0, the major poc, four weeks ago but Momentum is positive now and up.
? Silver SLV: Still in a weak price location and has been in a narrow range for five weeks. Momentum is positive and up.
– Dollar Index: strong price location above 81.35, major 1/2R. Momentum (although positive) is down.
– EURUSD: The 24mn poc has migrated to 1.3070. Chart is still in a weak price location below that level and on Tuesday printed its lowest level since November. Momentum (although negative) is up.
imo these charts are not clear re bias for equities although TLT below 117.15 is a positive for equities.
