S&P 500 emini pre-open Thursday 22nd January

posted 08.28 a.m. est

ES opened below 2009.50 (see yesterday’s comments) and immediately rallied above it. This is 4mn Time Support and as long as ES holds above this level it is in a strong price location. Previously the 4mn poc was at 2035.00 and pre-open today ES is probing that level – it is possible the poc could migrate back to this level. There is an expectation of volatility pre-open today with the ECB press conference due as this is published.

First Level Support = 2009.50 (4mn poc)
Major Support = 1962.00 (6mn poc) and SPY 197.20 (8mn poc)

Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 42% (from 39%), Nasdaq 38% (from 40%), R2000 39% (from 41%). Numbers >50 are supportive.

Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 9.47, close to last week’s 9.41 which is the lowest ratio in last 46 days. In early December the ratio reached 13.73, the highest in the database.

Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: recently exceeded the 2012 high but pre-open today is printing a 6day low.
Dollar Index: on Friday printed its highest level since 2003.
Gold GLD: has rallied strongly this month and on Wednesday probed above 124.12, the major poc on the daily chart. Time printed above this level would be strong price location.
Oil USO: on 12/12 broke below the extreme low of Feb 2009 and printed a new low last week.
EURUSD: probed the 4mn Time Resistance at 1.2475 last month and is lower from there, printing below 1.2300, the maj poc, and on Friday printed its lowest level since 2003.