posted 9.29 a.m. ET
Pre-open comment Thursday 22nd September
Pre-open Tuesday I wrote that “If Significant Selling is marked below that level (1190) it would put the ST analysis back in line negatively with the LT analysis.” That has now happened. Long Trades now eliminated.
ES broke 1st Level Support early in the session on Wednesday and the sell-off later in the day meant that by the end of the session I had to mark Aggressive selling for the first time in twelve days. Overnight, 2nd Level Support was also broken and pre-open today ES prints much lower around 1125. Once again we now have to monitor the Maj Poc Support at 1094.
1st Level Resistance = 1147 (1/2R off Aug low) (116.89 SPY)
1st Level S/R ES = 1134 (previous poc) (114.88 SPY)
Major Support = 1094 (Maj Poc) (109.17 SPY)
LT Sentiment: Investors Intelligence (newsletters) poll: Bulls% was slightly higher this week and Bears% slightly lower.
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was up at 1.52 (from 1.47). See yesterday’s comments re Bull fund assets. They did reach a 35 day high yesterday which was the eighth consecutive day of increasing Bullish assets.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
– EURUSD: Broke Major Support, as detailed, earlier this month. Next level of potential Support is the 1/2R off June 2010 low which comes in at 1.3416. Chart has reached that Support as I write.
– Dollar Index: Chart printing a seven month high today.
– TLT: Chart approaching the Dec 2008 high.
imo these charts have lined up negatively for equities.
