posted 9.18 a.m. est
pre-open comment Thursday 24th January
On Wednesday I marked Aggressive Buying for the third consecutive day which is unusual. Value Area was higher but narrower and lon reduced Volume. Still no Response from the Sellers who have been absent now for sixteen days.
First Level Support = 1453 (4mn poc)
Second Level Support = 1406 (maj poc)
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 90% and Nasdaq 80%. Numbers >50 are supportive. Numbers>80 usually considered overbought.
Sentiment: indicates extreme complacency, not quite extreme optimism, e.g. VIX closed at 12.43 on Tuesday, the lowest since 2007. My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly lower at 3.65 (from 3.85). Ratio reached 4.63 on 01/15 which was a 69day high.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
The following KEY Charts are printing very close to useful reference levels. Monitoring price relative to these levels should give us a good idea about the markets current appetite for risk.
? Bonds TLT: Seems to have found Support just above the major poc (117.15). Momentum is still negative but up. Pre-open prints above 119.00, the very minor 1/2R off recent low.
+ Commodities: Oil USO is now printing above the 1/2R and poc Resistance around 34.17. Price holding above this level indicates further strength. Gold GLD is lower today but still printing above the 161 major poc which is stronger price location if it holds.
? Dollar Index: pre-open is printing above 79.80, the 2yrpoc but below 80.15, the major level.
? EURUSD: printing above 1.3117, the 24mn poc but has reached the next Resistance at 1.3416 (1/2R off 2010 low) and has not yet printed time above that level. It would be a positive for this chart and equities if it did so.
