posted 7.46 a.m. et
pre-open comment Thursday 24th May
Monday’s (green-at-bottom) low has been tested so there has been no real follow-through since that Buying activity. Maybe ES can make some progress today as it currently prints back above the 1307 poc (overnight low has been 1306 and ES has printed as high as 1323.50 as of two hours pre-open).
Bulls would want to see further signs of strength above 1307. Significant Buying marked again above 1307 would be a further sign of strength on the dayframe and a strong close on Friday above Tuesday’s high would be the first sign of strength on the weekly timeframe. This could just be Sellers Resting, offering opportunity to the Buyers so Buyers need to make progress. Price below 1307 is weak price location.
Potential Support / Resistance = 1307 (maj poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower on Wednesday to 3.28 (from 3.49). This is a 50dy low but still higher than I would expect to see at an intermediate bottom. Ratio reached a low of 3.07 on 03/13.
Investors Intelligence (newsletters) poll reported Bulls at 38.3% which is the lowest Bulls% since w/e 21st october last year.
The Bears came in at 26.6% (up from 22.3) which is the highest Bears% since February. This is encouraging but I have to say that following a sell-off like this Bulls% usually reaches a minimum of 30% before a low of any significance is put in.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
– EURUSD: Major poc is at 1.2777. Chart currently prints below that level and at its lowest since July 2010.
– Dollar Index: On Wednesday printed its highest level since september 2010.
– TLT: On wednesday printed its highest level since October. Chart very overbought technically.
imo these charts have a negative bias for equities.
