posted 09.10 a.m. est
pre-open comment Thursday 25th July
On Wednesday I marked Responsive Selling (red-at-top) for the second day running from price around 1693. A lower, wider Value Area was generated so this was Effective Selling on the dayframe but Support was found at 1677, the 25day poc. New long trades are now eliminated for me until Significant Buying is marked again but as I wrote pre-open yesterday “First sign of weakness in the ST would be time spent below 1677.00, the 25day poc.” This level, 1677.00 may be intraday Support or Resistance today.
1st Level LT Support = ES 1645.00 (4mn poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 74%, Nasdaq 77%, R2000 80%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive. Numbers >80 are considered overbought.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was down slightly at 3.22. On 07/10 the ratio reached 2.15 which was the lowest ratio since January 2012 and indicated real fear from the retail trader.
Supporting Charts
Bonds TLT: w/e 07/05 chart printed 107.16, its lowest level since Sep 2011. Pre-open today it prints 107.60 as I write. Momentum is negative and turned lower yesterday. Still a weak looking chart.
Oil USO: Last Friday printed its highest level since May 2012 but has come lower this week and is now printing below 38.0 which was previously the maj poc. There is Support at the 1/2R off 2011 high at 37.31 and as long as chart holds that level it is in a strong price location. Momentum is positive but turned down on Monday.
Gold GLD: printed a 23day high on Tuesday. Momentum is positive and up. The low on 06/28 was the lowest since Aug 2010.
Silver SLV: printed a 22day high on Monday. Momentum is positive and up. w/e 06/28 chart printed its lowest level since Aug 2010.
Dollar Index: On 07/09 printed its highest level since July 2010 but declined sharply from there and is now printing below 82.73, the 12mn poc. Momentum is negative. Dollar Bulls would want to see Momentum turn back and price above 82.73.
EURUSD: Has rallied sharply since testing the maj poc Support at 1.2777 on 07/09 and printed a 23day high on Wednesday. As long as 1.3065 holds (the 9mn poc) the chart is in a strong price location. Momentum turned positive on Monday.
