posted 05.20 a.m. et
pre-open comment Thursday 25th October
Note: this was written at 05.25 a.m. et
Wednesday’s session generated an overlapping VA on less Volume. The VAL of the range from early August at 1403 (dashed) has been briefly tested twice but no time has been printed below it. However, the most recent imbalance was Selling (red); %Stocks>50dyma for both Nyse and Nasdaq is below 50 and Momentum is down. All of these ST negatives could improve very quickly if that VAL is rejected but I remain cautious until evidence is seen of Effective Buying (see yesterday’s highlighted comment).
First Level Resistance = 1435.00 (5mn poc)
First Level Support = 1397.00 maj poc
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher again at 3.80 (from 3.64). Last Friday’s ratio at 3.33 was a 49day low. Investors Intelligence reported Bulls at 41.5%, a twelve week low and Bears at 27.7%, equal highest Bears% (with w/e 3rd Aug) since early February. I’ll be interested to see if the AAII poll later today also shows further increase in Bears.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
? EURUSD: As I write chart is printing back above 1.2988, the 1/2R off the Sep high so in the ST this is better price location than yesterday. In the longer term the chart prints between the two major levels at 1.3117 and 1.2777.
? Dollar Index: High yesterday was once again the proven Resistance at 80.15. Price above this level would be strong price location.
? TLT: currently prints right in the middle between two major levels. Momentum is down.
imo determining a bias for equities from these charts is currently difficult.
