posted 6.27 a.m.
pre-open comment Thursday 27th September
Note: this written at 6.25 a.m. et
Wednesday’s session generated a lower, narrower Value Area on less volume. The most recent imbalance was Selling (red) on Tuesday which means new long trades are eliminated for me. I am concerned that ES is printing below the 1435poc and all three Key charts closed below their key levels on Wednesday (see below). At current prices I would want to see all these charts recover back above their key levels before anticipating strength in the ST.
First Level S/R = 1435.00 (25dy poc)
Support = 1397 (8mn poc)
Key chart levels this week: monitoring Maj 1/2R (off 2000 high):
QQQ = 70.13. Closed below this level on Wed.
Nasdaq Comp = 3120.50. Closed below this level on Wed.
Nasdaq 100 = 2805.60. Closed below this level on Wed.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 4.62 but ratio reached 5.51 on 09/18 and and I only have one ratio higher than this in my database (5.64 on 3rd April). This level of optimism from the Rydex traders usually indicates limited upside.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
? EURUSD: The major poc remains at 1.2777 but the 12mnth poc migrated to 1.3117. As the chart currently prints back below this level, 1.3117 is now Resistance of some importance. Chart printing time above 1.3117 would be strong price location. Momentum has turned down.
? Dollar Index: is rallying back towards the major level at 80.15. Price above that level would be a strong price location and a negative for equities.
? TLT: is rallying back towards the 125.93 (5mn poc) Resistance. Price above that level would be a strong price location and a negative for equities.
It is difficult to imply an ST bias for equities from these charts.
