S&P 500 emini pre-open Thursday 28th August
posted at 05.55 a.m. est
Wednesday’s session generated the eighth consecutive Value Area above 1949, the 4mn poc. The VA was narrow on low Volume. Facilitation will improve when either the Significant Buyers or Sellers re-enter. Sellers have been offered opportunity for six days with Buyers resting but so far have not been marked (absent for fifteen days now). If Sellers do not appear soon Buyers will step back in. There is minor Support this week at 1986.50, the 16day poc, and price above this level is in a strong location in the ST.
ES First Level Support = 1949.00 (4mn poc)
ES Major Support = 1872 (maj poc)
All four stock index ETFs have Momentum up and positive. Key Chart IWM prints above 115.41, its 1/2R off July high in stronger price location. Bonds and Dollar are also strong, see below, which suggests that either these charts or equities will weaken.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 57% (unch), Nasdaq 54% (from 55%), R2000 55% (from 57%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 8.88 (from 7.55) a 19day high. Mainly due to Bear Fund Assets that I follow being down 15%. On 07/29 the ratio reached 10.47, the highest in my database. This week VIX has reached a 28day low at 11.24, close to 10.32, the July low (and the lowest since Feb 2007).
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: chart is printing above the Resistance at 117.15 and on Wednesday closed at its highest level since May last year. Time printed above this Resistance is a positive for this chart (and a negative for equities).
Dollar Index: on Wednesday printed its highest level since July last year.
Gold GLD: is printing just below 124.15, the 30mn poc Resistance. This chart has been consolidating for a year now in a contracting type of pattern. I’m looking for a directional move to begin soon.
Oil USO: Lat week printed its lowest level since February and prints just above the Support at 34.17, the 1/2R off 2009 low.
EURUSD: on Wednesday printed its lowest level since September. Next Support is at 1.3066, the 3yr poc.
