Pre-open Thursday 28th October
I marked no Significant Buying yesterday but an afternoon rally saw ES auctioned back to the 30day poc at 1178. Overnight all price action has taken place above that poc and pre-open (following the release of jobs data) ES has rallied as high as 1187.50.
As I discussed in yesterday’s webcast, despite the negative divergences and the increasing public Bullishness (see Rydex data below) we still await Effective Selling. There’s been no Aggressive Selling (red-at-bottom) marked since early September and the last time Effective Selling was marked was 11th August.
Dayframe: If Sellers are going to gain any hold here then we’d see ES quickly back to the 1178 poc after a gap up to open. Holding above 1186 early in the session indicates higher.
First Level Support 1178
Minor Resistance at 1186 (Monday’s poc)
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was up slightly from 2.17 to 2.20 which is the highest ratio since May. Bull Fund assets that I follow are now also at the highest level since May.
Supporting Charts
? USDJPY: New low for this chart on Monday but Price Osc has been up for nine consecutive days.
– EURUSD: Major 1/2R at 1.3965 (off the 2008 high) in play. Chart currently printing below that level. Price Osc down for fifteen consecutive days.
? UDX: there’s been little bounce from the ten month low set on the 15th but Price Osc up for ten consecutive days.
+ TLT: chart still in weak location with confirmed lower high and lower low.
imo these charts are mixed and have no obvious ST bias for equities. EURUSD will provide a big clue re IT direction for Equities, specifically if it finds resistance or support at the Major 1/2.
