posted 09.24 a.m. est
pre-open comment Thursday 29th August
Last week the 5mn poc migrated higher to 1644.50. Previous to that the poc was at 1627 and Buyers Responded on Wednesday (green-at-bottom) to a probe below that level. Potentially this level could attract more time and the multi-month poc “could” migrate back down so – Bulls would hope we see more evidence of solid buying above that level. Currently I will remain cautious here until Significant Buying is marked above 1644.50 and breadth improves (see numbers below). Price below 1627 would suggest further weakness.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 40%, Nasdaq 45%, R2000 40%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was once again almost unchanged at 3.19 which is a 24day low. The market has corrected about 4.5% but haven’t seen any sign of capitulation here. Bottoms, even minor ones, are safer calls with some fear in this number. The ratio reached as high as 5.43 at the market May high and as low as 2.15 on 07/10 (which was the lowest ratio since January 2012).
Supporting Charts – *means comment has change
Bonds TLT: A minor rally w/e 08/09 found Resistance at the 4mn poc. Chart printed a two year low last week.
Oil USO: Now printing above both the 1/2R off 2011 high at 37.31 and 37.93 its maj poc in much stronger price location.
Gold GLD: Chart is now printing above the Resistance at 134.17, the 12mn poc. This is stronger price location.
Dollar Index: Currently in weak price location below the major poc at 82.73. Bulls would want to see price recover that level.
*EURUSD: weaker today and now printing in the Support band between the 4mn poc at 1.3257 and the 1/2R at 1.3228. Price below this Support would suggest lower.
