Pre-open comment Thursday 29th December
From this week’s eBook >>The important level to monitor is the Support at ES 1244<<. Wednesday’s session tested briefly down to 1243 and overnight the low has been 1244.25. Time printed below 1244 would indicate further weakness.
Key chart is EURUSD; If EURUSD accepts price below the Jan low (tested today) and ES convincingly breaks 1244 I would expect the 1204.50 Support to be tested.
First Level Resistance = ES 1265 (VAH)
First Level Support = ES 1244 (75dy poc) SPY =125.44
Second Level Support = ES 1204.50 (1/2R) SPY = 122.30
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 2.66 which is a 24day high. Recent high is 2.96 (11/07). Bull Fund Assets that I follow were not up but Bear Fund Assets were down by 22% to a 5month low.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). (Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
– EURUSD: Today has printed a new low for the year. Momentum is down.
– Dollar Index: pre-open prints above 80.15 (the 1/2R off the 2008 low). Strong location. Momentum is up.
– TLT: the decline off the Dec high has held the 117.88 Support (10month poc). Strong location. Momentum is up.
imo these charts have a negative ST bias for equities.
