posted at 5a.m. ET
Pre-open comment Thursday 29th September
On Wednesday I marked Aggressive Selling (red-at-bottom) as ES tested yesterday’s 1st Level Support at 1147. This Selling Imbalance puts the ST analysis negatively back in line with the LT analysis so I am cautious here. The Support levels that broke down (see yesterday’s email) become 1st Level S/R today (i.e. could be intraday Support or Resistance). I am writing this at 5a.m. ET and ES is printing close to 1162.88. ES printing below 1147 would increase the likelihood of the Aug low being tested despite the Sentiment readings (see ISEE number below).
Today’s calendar
http://online.barrons.com/public/page/barrons_econoday.html
suggests there may be some volatility pre-open but for me long trades are eliminated at least until I mark Significant Buying again.
1st Level S/R ES = 1162.88 (1/2R off Aug high)
1st Level S/R SPY = 116.86 (1/2R off Aug low)
1st Level Support ES = 1147 (1/2R off Aug low)
1st Level Support SPY = 114.85 (poc)
Major Support ES = 1094 (Maj Poc) (109.17 SPY)
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 1.43 (from 1.26). The recent low was 1.10 on 22nd Aug. The ISEE (equity-only) index came in at 71 which is an extremely low reading.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
? EURUSD: Broke Major Support in early September. 1.3416 is 1/2R Support off June 2010 low and is holding for now. PriceOsc (momentum) has turned up.
? Dollar Index: Chart printed a new seven month high on Monday but PriceOsc has turned down.
? TLT: Last week the Chart tested the Dec 2008 high but PriceOsc has turned down.
imo these charts have a negative bias for equities in the LT but unclear in ST.
