Pre-open comment Thursday 2nd April
See yesterday’s highlighted comments. Wednesday’s session generated a lower Value Area but entirely above First Level Support at 2045.00 which was tested and rejected early in the session and provided intraday Support later in the day. Bulls would hope to see Significant Buying marked above this level. Time below 2045.00 would indicate further weakness.
First Level Resistance = 2072.00 (1/2R off Feb high)
First Level Support = ES 2045.00 (7mn poc); SPY 205.00 (6mn poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 54%, Nasdaq 56%, R2000 62%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly lower at 11.28. On 03/02 the ratio reached 14.06, the highest ratio in the database. SPY has corrected from that point but the ratio has indicated little fear so far. From a contrarian perspective this is not very encouraging. More pessimism would be would be welcome
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: closed above 130.75, the 1/2R off the Jan high. Stronger price location if it holds above that level.
Dollar Index: on 03/13 chart printed its highest level since 2003. Has corrected from there but there is Support at 94.67, the 12mn poc. Today DX is currently printing just below 98.28, the 1/2R off the recent high, which is weaker price location in the ST.
Gold GLD: pre-open today is probing above 115.12, the 12mn poc. Time above this level would be a positive.
Oil USO: pre-open today is printing below 18.39, the 12mn poc.
EURUSD: fell since May last year to major 1/2R Support at 1.1241. Chart held above that level through February but broke that Support earlier this month.
