posted 09.16 a.m. est
pre-open comment Thursday 2nd May
Green-at-top highs are tested within a day (or two) 80% of the time. Tuesday’s was not. Pre-open yesterday I said that Buyers were in control of the dayframe but by strictly applying my rules I had to mark Significant Selling during Wednesday’s session. My number one rule says “do not fade the most recent imbalance” and even though it doesn’t “feel” right to me, new long trades are now eliminated for me at least until Significant Buying is marked again. However, ES remains in a strong price location as long as it holds above 1562 (1/2R off recent high) and currently I would not consider the short side if that’s the case.
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 55% Nasdaq 45% R2000 40% Numbers >50 are considered supportive. The R2000 fell particulary hard yesterday, down from 57% on Tuesday.
Minor dayframe Support = 1581 (25dy poc)
First Level Support = ES 1562 (1/2R off recent high)
Second Level Support = ES 1548.50 (5mn poc)
Rydex Assets Ratio: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher again at 4.66 (from 4.43). Ratio reached a low of 3.22 on 4th Jan and a high of 5.22 on 13th Feb.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
? Bonds TLT: KEY CHART. Prints very close to the obvious Resistance at 123.42, the 1/2R off last July’s high. If chart can print time above this level it would be stronger price location.
? Oil USO: Now printing back below 33.10 (1/2R off last year’s low). Momentum is negative but up.
? Gold GLD: Has fell steeply earlier this month to its lowest level for two years. Momentum is negative but up.
– Silver SLV: Has been weak since it double-failed at its maj poc in January and this month printed its lowest level since Oct 2010.
? Dollar Index: Printed a 45day low yesterday at the important Support at 81.35 1/2R level.
? EURUSD: Printed a 45day high yesterday at the 1.3228 Resistance (1/2R off February high).
imo these charts are not clearly indicating a bias for equities.
