S&P 500 emini pre-open Thursday 2nd October
posted 09.22 a.m. est
See previous comments highlighted on graphic. Yesterday I wrote that “the (16day) poc at 1964 could come into play as intraday Support or Resistance”. ES made its high (1963.25) early in the session without probing that level. There was an auction lower throughout the session which broke below the 1949 Support and a lower, wider, Value Area was generated on increased Volume. Aggressive Selling was marked and these red-at-bottom lows are tested 80% of the time within a day (or two). The poc at 1949 now becomes important Resistance and as long as ES prints below this level it is in a very weak price location.
ES First Level Resistance = 1949.00 (4mn)
ES Major Support = 1872
Key Charts/Levels: IWM is printing below 111.64 (2yr poc) in a weak price location and DIA prints below 170.38 (18mn poc) also in a weak price location See also Key Charts TLT and USO, below.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 17% (from 22%), Nasdaq 22% (from 28%), R2000 15% (from 20%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: I wrote yesterday that my version of the Rydex Assets ratio was “indicating the Rydex traders are not very fearful at the moment.” This was emphasised with Wednesday’s data showing the ratio almost unchanged at 8.77. No fear here and from a contrarian perspective that’s worrying. The highest ratio in the database is 10.47 On 07/29.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT KEY Chart: On Wednesday closed above the 117.15 (maj poc) Resistance. In a much stronger price location if nthat level (now Support) holds.
Dollar Index: Printed a four year high on Tuesday.
Gold GLD: Recently found resistance at 124.15, the 30mn poc and fell sharply. On Tuesday printed its lowest level since early January.
Oil USO KEY Chart: Sold-off since mid June and found Support at 34.17 (1/2R off 2009 low) but has now broken below that level and as I have been writing recently price printing time below this level would be very weak location and suggest lower.
EURUSD: Earlier in the month chart broke below 1.3066 (3yr poc) and on Tuesday printed a two year low.
