Pre-open comment Thursday 30th April
Wednesday’s session generated a lower, overlapping Value Area. ES is still finding price around 2095.50 (4mn poc) “attractive” and the minor poc which is currently a little higher will likely move to this level. My hunch is that Aggressive Buying/Selling marked above/below 2095.50 will signal the next directional move. In any case price below this level is weak price location. Breadth numbers have weakened and need to be watched, see below.
Dayframe: The minor poc migrated to 2099.00 and in the ST price above this level would be a positive. The Value Area Low of this minor distribution is currently at 2085.00.
First Level S/R today = 2095.50 (4mn poc)
Second Level Support = ES 2045.00 (7mn poc); SPY 205.00
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 55% (from 60%), Nasdaq 50% (from 55%), R2000 51% (from 59%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher again at 11.73 which is an 18day high. The ratio fell to a 50day low recently at 9.91 which represented a 29.5% fall from 14.06 on 03/02 (the highest in the database).
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: closed on Wednesday at a 36 day low. Currently printing below 129.80, the 6mn poc, in a weaker price location.
Gold GLD: pre-open today is printing close to 115.12, the 11mn poc. Time above this level would be a positive.
Oil USO: for three weeks has been printing above 18.39, the 12mn poc, in a stronger price location.
EURUSD: in February broke below the major 1/2R at 1.1241. There was a swift decline but chart has now rallied back to that level which is now Resistance.
