Pre-open comment Thursday 30th June
This week has been dominated by the Buyers – I’ve marked Significant Buying four times and the Value Areas have all been higher.
Dayframe: Following three consecutive days of Aggressive Buying the market usually pauses and with hourly oscillators well overbought, the 1/2R Resistance at 1310 may prove to be a problem, at least in the ST. However, if ES manages to print time above that level early in the session we could see it higher yet noting that today is the last trading day of the month*.
Short Trades eliminated since Monday’s Close; #1 Rule…I never fade the most recent imbalance.
1st Level Resistance = 1310 (1/2R off May high) (131.68 SPY)
1st Level Support = 1280.50 (poc)
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly lower at 2.13. We’ve had three strong days this week but the ratio is lower than it was on Friday – that is most likely ST Bullish. Ratio on 06/21 at 1.82 was the lowest level since October.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
? EURUSD: Chart making another attempt to overcome the 1.450 Resistance (1/2R off May high). Momentum (PriceOsc) was up yesterday for the first time in twelve days.
+ Dollar Index: 10day low printed today Momentum (PriceOsc) was down yesterday for the first time in twelve days.
+ TLT: Chart printed a 34day low today. Momentum (PriceOsc) is down.
imo these charts are mixed but imply a positive ST bias for equities.
* Last trading day of the month and the first two of the following month represents the most bullish period in the monthly cycle.
