posted 9.29 a.m.
Pre-open Thursday 30th September
Wednesday printed another Value Area in the 1136-43 region consolidating long enough at this higher range to lift the 7week poc to 1139. That’s ST bullish if ES can hold above that price. Pre-open ES is attempting to break out to the highest level since mid May. Considering the strong price location of many charts (discussed in webcast) a breakout here will look bullish but we approach a strong time pivot with Sentiment indicators likely to flash warning signals (see below).
First Level S/R for today’s session stays at 1139 which is now the 7week poc.
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was up from 1.64 to 1.78, the highest level since Aug 10th. And the ISEE (equity only) index came in at 242, the highest number since Aug 18th. Increasing optimism here. If ES breaks to new rally high I would expect to see these indicators move rapidly higher.
Supporting Charts
– USDJPY: 1/2R off the September low is 84.41 and the chart is printing below that level which means it is still in a weak position. Lower again today.
+ EURUSD: Higher again today and approaching a six month high.
+ UDX: New eight month low today.
– TLT: has recovered back above the major 1/2R level resistance at 105.22
imo these charts are mixed but have a slight positive bias for equities.
est