posted 09.14 a.m. est
pre-open comment Thursday 31st January
On Wednesday Significant Selling was marked for the first time in twenty two days. Note that Wednesday generated an inside Value Area so this was not Effective Selling. Even so, new long trades are now eliminated for me at least until Significant Buying is marked again. A day of Effective Buying followed by a day of Ineffective Selling is not necessarily a bearish pattern so we need more evidence (i.e. Effective Selling) to assume further weakness on even the minor timeframe.
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 85% and Nasdaq 74%. Numbers >50 are supportive. Numbers>80 usually consideed overbought.
Dayframe: The very minor (now 18day) poc at 1497 (dashed) is the best reference level for ST Support/Resistance intraday.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 4.81 (from 4.37). This is the highest reading since 28th September. The highest reading in my database at 5.64 was in early April 2012.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
? Bonds TLT: On Wednesday probed below the major poc Support at 117.15. Time below this level is weak price location and imo would be a positive for equities. Pre-open today it prints at that Support.
? Commodities: Oil USO is overbought technically but printing above the 1/2R and poc Resistance around 34.17. Price holding above this level indicates further strength. Pre-open Gold GLD is printing above the 161.0 major poc. Silver SLV is an interesting chart, has again rallied to 31.25, its major poc, but has not exceeded it.
+ Dollar Index: is printing below 79.80, the 2yr poc and momentum is negative and down.
+ EURUSD: Chart has cleared the Resistance at 1.3416 (1/2R off 2010 low) and on Wednesday printed its highest level since Nov 2011.
imo these charts are currently mixed but most likely have a slight positive bias for equities. Key Charts: Watch particularly TLT relative to 117.15 and SLV relative to 31.25.
