posted 9.29 a.m. est
Wednesday was a tight range day on low volume (notice the distribution was backing and filling Tuesday’s). These inside, quiet days have a tendency to preceed directional days. On intraday charts you will find these kind of situations when the 60minute bollinger bands get very squeezed (as they are now). ES was printing printing above the 8dayVAH at 1296.5 which has slowed price recently; if more time is spent around 1300 the minor poc would migrate higher lifting the 8dayVAH which might be the trigger higher.
There is the worrying session gap on Tuesday (they often get quickly filled) and a decline to the 1281.50 support would fill that, but as long as ES holds First Level Support, or tests it and quickly comes back, I favour a twest of Tuesday’s high.
Dayframe: time spent below 1293 indicates ST weakness. time spent around 1300 indicates further ST strength.
First Level S/R = 1293 (minor 15dy poc)
Second Level Support = 1281.50 (3month poc)
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was up to 3.4. This is historically still very high but down from ratio (on 01/19) at 3.94 which was the highest reading I have in my database.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities)
+ EURUSD: Still strong above support.
+ UDX: Still weak below resistance.
+ TLT: Closest reference level is the 2month poc at 92.56. Chart remains weak below that level. New multi-month low yesterday.
imo these charts have a positive bias for equities.
